The Counterfactual

The problem of induction (heads), pt. I

The explanatory virtues and limits of induction heads as scientific constructs.

Apr 24 • Sean Trott

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Why benchmarks don't resolve disagreements

In which I argue it mostly comes down to uncertainty about robust generalization of behavior.

Apr 3 • Sean Trott

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March 2026

Language models and the intentional stance

When are words like "belief" and "desire" useful, and when do we risk mistaking the map for the territory?

Mar 18 • Sean Trott

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In what sense—if any—are LLMs "model organisms" for the study of human cognition?

When researchers suggest using LLMs as "in silico" models, what exactly might that mean?

Mar 10 • Sean Trott

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February 2026

Situation models: a cognitively plausible abstraction

An old idea from Cognitive Science can lend theoretical purchase to debates about the capacities of LLMs.

Feb 18 • Sean Trott

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The necessity (and complexity) of fixed points in measurement

Hasok Chang's "Inventing Temperature" offers an instructive example of epistemic iteration in practice.

Feb 11 • Sean Trott

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January 2026

Healthy minds and sick souls

William James on two kinds of religious temperament.

Jan 31 • Sean Trott

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Calibrating expectations

The "habitability problem" never really went away.

Jan 17 • Sean Trott

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December 2025

Evaluating empirical claims: practical advice

A conceptual framework for identifying the type and validity of empirical claims.

Dec 30, 2025 • Sean Trott

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Who's afraid of the null hypothesis?

A useful experiment should have an interesting null hypothesis.

Dec 22, 2025 • Sean Trott

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November 2025